Winter is coming, and the Old Farmer's Almanac says Kentucky, and much of the United States, should prepare for "a season of shivers."
The almanac breaks the country down into multiple regions, but the overarching trend for most of them in this year's winter weather forecast is "cold."
Here's what's predicted for winter 2021-22, and how it all works:
Old Farmer's Almanac predictions for Kentucky
All of Kentucky, as well as much of Southern Indiana, is smack in the middle of a region the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts will see "cold, snowy" weather this winter.
"Winter will be colder than normal, with below-normal precipitation but above-normal snowfall, especially in the west," the almanac goes on to say about the Ohio Valley. "The coldest periods will occur in mid- to late November and through much of the period from mid-December through January. The snowiest periods will arrive in mid-December, early and mid-January, and mid- to late February."
How does the Old Farmer's Almanac work?
The Old Farmer's Almanac "employs three scientific disciplines to make long-range predictions," including "solar science," climatology and meteorology.
"We predict weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity," they say.
How accurate is the Old Farmer's Almanac?
The Old Farmer's Almanac says it has an average accuracy rate of 80%, but some have called that into question.
When one meteorologist studied its forecasts for 2016 and 2017 and graded them on a scale of "good, bad and mixed," she found 25% of the 57 regions reviewed got a "good" accuracy rating for precipitation predictions. Under 33% of the 52 regions whose temperature predictions were reviewed got a "good" rating.
In Louisville, the almanac predicted winter 2020-21 would be "not so cold, not too wet," But, according to National Weather Service data, the city's average temperature from December to February — 36.5 degrees — was the lowest since 2015, and Louisville's snowfall total — 17.5 in. — was at its highest since 2014.
USA Today contributed reporting to this story.
Mary Ramsey is a breaking news reporter for The Courier Journal. Reach her at firstname.lastname@example.org, and follow her on Twitter @mcolleen1996. Support strong local journalism in our community by subscribing to The Courier Journal today.